Proceedings of the
Second International Energy 2030 Conference,
November 4-5, 2008, Abu Dhabi, U.A.E.
Production of Global Hydrocarbon Liquids:
Is There a Near-term Peak?
Dr. Richard C. Vierbuchen
ExxonMobil Exploration Company, USA
The demand for petroleum liquids is rising, and forecast to increase from approximately 85 MBD in
2006 to 115 MBD in 2030. Forecast demand growth raises questions about whether the petroleum
zxresource base is adequate to satisfy long-term demand. This paper addresses these questions, in
particular, the validity of predictions of a near-term peak in global liquids supply that are based on the
widely used methods developed by Hubbert (1956).